Will this election be decided by experience or hearsay? PoliPundit has a nice analysis of the latest NYT/CBS poll. They point out how, from top to bottom, Bush is ahead either by a little or a whole lot on issues that are essentially personal:

• Which candidate am I favorable toward (Bush 48%, Kerry 41%)?
• Has Bush made me safer (54% Yes to 29% No)
• Which candidate agrees with my priorities (Bush 49%, Kerry 42%)
• Which candidate opposes my priorities? (Bush 48%, Kerry 53% (here, lower is better))
• Which candidate has leadership qualities? (Bush 62%, Kerry 52%)
• Is my family better off, the same, or worse off than 4 years ago? (31% better, 29% worse (40% same))

Powerline has it right: “If Kerry wins with numbers like these, voters will have a serious and instantaneous case of buyer’s remorse.”

Kerry has been running around the campaign trail throwing around outright lies about the economy (the “1.6 million jobs lost” canard, e.g.), blaming the president for things that simply aren’t true. And poll numbers have frequently reflected people’s concerns about the economy, in the midst of a clear, across-the-board recovery. What this reflects is that Americans are fundamentally sympathetic to the plight of others (nothing new here). And when someone who should be trustworthy is telling far and wide that the economy is failing, that jobs are vanishing, that everyone is broke, then people will worry about it, in spite of the fact that it’s not affecting them personally.

But, like the polling data from CBS/NYT, the fact is that when people consider only their own experience, their own instincts, Bush is a clear and consistent winner on nearly every issue (even the economy). And I believe that what will drive the results tomorrow into a landslide for Bush or a narrow victory for Kerry is simply this: Will voters, once inside that voting booth, trust their personal experience and instinct, or will they attempt to vote based on the dissonant stories they’ve been told for 2 years now by a pair of professional liars and their lapdop partisan press?

If people vote based on their own situation, then the reality of a vigorous and growing economy, a vastly safer America, a restored patriotism, will roll Kerry and Edwards and their disaffected and deceitful and destructive hordes of election lawyers right out on their lizardly reptilian backsides.

If, however, people decide to ignore what their own senses and experience tell them, and instead vote someone else’s view of America, then Kerry has a chance.