Just remember, you read it here first. Well, theoretically, at least; nobody actually reads here. But my bold prediction for tonight’s debate is ready.

Between the actual debate tonight and tomorrow’s headlines and “analysis” there will be a fatal disconnect, at least for red-state type voters. Bush will handily dispatch Kerry, who will make a long-winded, condescending, didactic, arrogant fool of himself, while the President will alternate between smiling and serious, and the whole thing will be a disaster for the foundering Kerry campaign. We already know that the less people see of John Kerry, the less they dislike him. He was scolding a friendly Dianne Sawyer yesterday; he’s simply not a man who can gracefully stand, well, anything. For all his finishing school and wealth and snobbery, he is an utterly graceless man. And it will show, and ordinary folks will respond accordingly.

The pundits, both immediately following the debate and late into the night, will declare Kerry the “clear winner” (except on Fox, where they don’t serve kool-aid), and intone about how Bush now has the job of “recovering” from his “failure” compared to the “master debater” (do you know how hard it is to avoid puns here?) Kerry.

Yet in the morning, and particularly as the weekend polls come out, Bush’s numbers will remain steady or improve slightly, and Kerry’s numbers will drop. The MSM will have a collective hissy of puzzlement, trying to figure out “what’s wrong with the polls”.

And you and I will just sit back and chuckle and wait for Round #2.

Remember, you could have read it here first (if anybody read here).

UPDATE: Behold: Kerry wins debate, but no change.

UPDATE: OK, I’m big enough to face up to it: I blew it on the first debate. Kerry did well, Bush didn’t, Kerry got a little positive reaction from it. However, I’m going to go ahead and say that I was pretty close on #2, and I flat-out nailed #3. The president whipped Kerry like a yard dog, on every facet - facts, arguments, presentation, likability, everything - and yet the MSM pundits still managed to claim that Kerry “won” it. But the polls since remain unequivocal: nothing in the debates (any of them) did any good for Kerry, or hurt Bush at all. Ah, well, on with the show.